O’Malley Supporters Almost Won Iowa For Sanders
Hillary Clinton barely beat Bernie Sanders in Iowa. It was basically a tie. Her 0.3 percentage point margin ranks as the thinnest victory in Iowa Democratic caucus history. But it’s likely that Clinton...
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Clinton’s Iowa Performance Reveals New Fault Lines for Democrats
The Iowa caucuses were much less disappointing for Hillary Clinton this year than they were in 2008. After coming in third to Barack Obama and John Edwards eight years ago, she managed a narrow victory...
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Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
Almost ever since Donald Trump announced his bid for the Republican nomination in June, he has dominated online — in news coverage, in Twitter followers and in Google searches, a rough proxy for...
View ArticleTake Martin O’Malley At Least Somewhat Seriously In 2020 … Seriously
A few weeks ago, Jason Zengerle wrote a helpful breakdown for The New York Times of the potential Democratic presidential candidates for 2020. One name was notably absent, however: former Maryland Gov....
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Biden’s Leading The Iowa Polls, But That Doesn’t Mean Much Yet
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll(s) of the week With the 2018 midterms (mostly) behind us, focus has shifted to the 2020 presidential election. The Iowa caucuses are usually...
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Republicans In Early Primary States Face A Choice: Protect Trump Or Their...
It’s been almost three decades since an incumbent president — George H.W. Bush in 1992 — faced a notable primary challenge. And while we don’t know yet if President Trump will have to fend off a major...
View ArticlePolitics Podcast: Iowa And New Hampshire Can Go To Hell
FiveThirtyEight More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS | Embed Embed Code <iframe frameborder="0" width="100%" height="180" style="margin:20px auto 25px;max-width:600px;" scrolling="no"...
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Joe Biden’s And Bernie Sanders’s Support Isn’t Just About Name Recognition
If you’re a longtime reader of FiveThirtyEight, you’ll know that the early stage of the presidential primary process is a tricky one for us to cover. It’s tempting to put a lot of emphasis on shiny...
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Some Of Today’s Candidates (Probably) Won’t Make It To Iowa
The 2020 Democratic field may be the largest presidential primary field in modern history. With Sen. Michael Bennet entering the 2020 presidential race on Thursday, there are now 20 “major” Democratic...
View ArticleHow Will Democrats’ Move Away From Caucuses Affect The 2020 Race?
How voters will pick the Democratic presidential nominee is confusing. Some states hold primaries where voters have all day to vote, while others hold caucuses at a specific time where voters may have...
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Silver Bulletpoints: Iowans Seem To Like Warren And Buttigieg
We’re less than two weeks from the Democrats’ first debate in Miami on June 26 and 27. I’m looking forward to the occasion — not so much because I’m eager to hear Bill de Blasio trying to drop some...
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Iowans Won’t Vote For You Just Because You’re Their Neighbor
Want a secret weapon for succeeding in the New Hampshire primary? Be a politician from a neighboring state. Want a secret weapon for succeeding in the Iowa caucuses? I’m afraid it’s back to the drawing...
View ArticlePolitics Podcast: What Iowa’s Best Pollster Thinks About 2020
By Galen Druke More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS | Embed Embed Code <iframe frameborder="0" width="100%" height="180" style="margin:20px auto 25px;max-width:600px;" scrolling="no"...
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Politics Podcast: How Much Does Iowa Matter?
By Galen Druke, Nate Silver, Clare Malone and Micah Cohen, Galen Druke, Nate Silver, Clare Malone and Micah Cohen, Galen Druke, Nate Silver, Clare Malone and Micah Cohen and Galen Druke, Nate Silver,...
View ArticleJoe Biden Has An Iowa Problem, Not An Enthusiasm Problem
If you’ve been following our coverage of the Democratic primary, you’ll know that I don’t think much of media really understands Joe Biden’s popularity among Democrats. That doesn’t mean that Biden is...
View ArticleA Virtual Iowa Caucus Would Have Been A Hacking Nightmare
When the Democratic National Committee put the kibosh on plans for virtual caucuses in Iowa and Nevada, they may have pissed off the people who saw the event as a chance to give more people the...
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The Latest Iowa Poll Is Good News For Elizabeth Warren And Tulsi Gabbard
On Saturday, Sen. Elizabeth Warren got one of her best polls of the cycle. According to a new survey by Selzer and Co. sponsored by the Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom, Warren has 22 percent...
View ArticleWho Democrats In Early-Primary States Don’t Want To See Nominated
The still-very-crowded Democratic presidential primary has been polled pretty extensively this year, giving observers a sense of who’s doing well in their efforts to win over likely Democratic primary...
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So … About That Buttigieg Surge?
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): After the fourth Democratic debate in October, Pete...
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How Much Do Iowa And New Hampshire Really Matter For 2020?
Joe Biden’s campaign has claimed he doesn’t need to win Iowa and New Hampshire to become the Democratic presidential nominee. Instead, the former vice president has his eyes on states No. 3 and 4 on...
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